A record cereal crop will lead to deflation. Russia breaks grain harvest records. Grain harvesting in a year.

The Ministry of Agriculture raised its forecast for gross harvest of grain crops this year to the level of 127 million tons, recognizing that the crop could break the Soviet record. According to the head of the ministry, Alexander Tkachev, until recently, the agency was cautious in its assessments due to adverse weather conditions in a number of regions:

“But today 85% of the sown area has already been harvested, almost 122 million tons of bunker weight has been threshed. And we can confidently say that a record crop will be harvested, perhaps, in the entire history of Russia - and, of course, the Soviet Union, ”

September 23 that "it seems there will be a record crop again," said President Vladimir Putin. Tkachev, in turn, recalled that at the moment the record in Russia was recorded in 1978, when 127 million tons were collected (excluding Crimea).

“This year we will beat this record, I have no doubt”

- the Minister expressed confidence.

According to Tkachev’s estimates, 40–45 million tons will be sent for export this season. To date, export has already exceeded the previous year’s figures by one third: more than 10 million tons of grain, including almost 8 million tons of wheat, have been shipped.

“Given the favorable situation on the world market, we plan to export almost 45 million tons, including 30 million tons of wheat. We hope that this year Russia will again become the world leader in wheat exports, ”

- emphasized Tkachev.

Grain market experts predicted that grain harvest this year could exceed last year's level (120.7 million tons) back in mid-July, when the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture were at the level of 100-105 million tons. During August, experts predicted during the harvesting campaign grow sharply and currently exceed 130 million tons. So, over the past week, the analytical company ProZerno has increased its forecast by another 2 million tons to 134.1 million tons, including 81.9 million tons of wheat (in 2016 - 73.3 million tons), 20.3 million tons of barley and 16 million tons of corn, and the analytical center "Rusagrotrans" - by 1 million tons to 133.3 million tons, including 82.3 million tons of wheat. The forecast of the SovEkon analytical center is 133 million tons, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) - 131-134 million tons.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 28, 123.4 million tons of bunker weight were threshed for grain and leguminous agricultural crops, which, taking into account the 5% reaction, means about 117 million tons in net weight. Harvesting was completed on 86% of the area, the average yield is 30.4 centner / ha against 26.1 centner / ha on the same date in 2016. Including wheat, which is already threshed in the country with 91% of the area, the yield exceeds last year's figure by 17%, barley harvested by 93%, by 20%. Corn is so far harvested from a little over a quarter of the area, its yield is now lower than last year by 8% and equals 48 kg / ha.

Shipping Compensation

To stimulate grain exports, the Ministry of Agriculture proposes to subsidize rail transportation of grain for export from remote regions this year. According to Tkachev, the corresponding draft resolution has been prepared and money for these purposes has already been found:

“He (the draft resolution) is being approved by the interested authorities”,

After the government meeting, the minister confirmed to reporters that transportation subsidies are planned to begin in October. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 3 billion rubles are needed to compensate for export transportation, which, as previously reported, will allow exporting about 3 million tons of grain from Siberia, the Urals, the Volga region, and the center of Russia.

“Given the lack of demand for grain in these regions, the price was always underestimated by a ruble or two, and this made grain production not very efficient, not very profitable in these territories, and this is no less than about 70% of the volume of grain produced in distant from the center and southern ports of the territories ",

- the official noted ( rNS quote).

Due to grain, agricultural exports in 2017 can grow to $ 20 billion.

“Last year it amounted to $ 17 billion. That is, this is a significant increase, and this speaks of our export potential not only in grain, but also in meat, vegetable oil, sugar”,

- summed up Tkachev.

The new mechanism for stabilizing prices proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture looks more reasonable than intervention grain purchases, director of the SovEcon analytical center Andrei Sizov said earlier. At the same time, according to him, at present, Russian ports are already fully loaded:

“Export is already going as fast as possible. And even if we carry for free, there will be no more ports from this. Therefore, in the short term - in the coming weeks, or even months - using such a mechanism to remove grain from the market will not work, "

With the fact that the infrastructure is operating at full capacity and therefore it will be extremely difficult to increase exports, the general director of the analytical company ProZerno Vladimir Petrichenko agrees. However, he said, zeroing duties would probably be able to raise falling grain prices:

“As far as it’s hard to say. However, this will not relieve tension on the supply of grain: they will not export more, even if it will be cheaper ”,

Earlier, the Russian Railways Board, for its part, decided to establish a 10.3% discount on tariffs for export transportation of grain from a number of regions to Russian ports. The decreasing coefficient will be valid for transportation from Voronezh, Oryol, Tambov, Orenburg, Saratov, Novosibirsk, Omsk regions from October 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018. It will cover the transportation of wheat, rye, oats, barley, corn, rice, buckwheat, beans, peas, beans and other grain cargoes. In addition, on September 15, the government approved the rules for subsidizing the cost of transporting agricultural products from the central regions of Russia to Siberia and the Far East. As Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich stated, the compensation of part of the logistic export costs will first work in the order of a pilot project: in 2017, the mechanism will be tested at individual companies, "And next year there is an opportunity to deploy it fully."

This season wheat quality has improved

According to the Federal Center for Grain Safety and Quality Assessment, 39.9 million tons of grain and leguminous agricultural crops in bunker weight have been threshed to date, accounting for 41.5% of the gross harvest in 47 regions. By September 21, the share of food wheat was 68.2% (23.2 million tons), including wheat of the 3rd class accounted for 21.8%, of the second class - 0.1%.

“In general, the quality of the classes is better than last year,”

- stated the director of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “Grain Quality Assessment Center” Julia Koroleva at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18.

Taking into account the fact that harvesting continues in Siberia and the Volga region, by the end of the harvesting campaign the percentage of 3rd-grade wheat will remain higher than last year and may amount to 25% of the total harvest.

“Last year, 3rd grade, we had no more than 22%,”

She recalled.

So, in the Krasnodar Territory, the 3rd class accounts for 14.9% of the crop, which is almost twice as high as last year's indicator (7.9%), in the Crimea - 9.1% compared to 5.4% in 2016.

The analytical center SovEkon predicts the final share of wheat of the 3rd class this season is slightly lower - at the level of 23–23.5%. Nevertheless, taking into account the expected record crop, the “increase” in the volume of wheat of the 3rd class will be significant compared to last year and may reach 3 million tons.

“With a projected wheat crop of 83 million tons, the volume of wheat of the 3rd class may be 19–19.5 million tons against the estimated 16.3 million tons”,

- the report says "SovEkona."

Also, improvement over the previous year can be expected for wheat of the 2nd class.

“Now the second class has revealed a small amount - about 0.1% of the total gross harvest. But we understand that now Siberia and the Volga Federal District will give a noticeable increase in quality ”,

- noted the Queen.

According to the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, by mid-September the 2nd class was identified in the Tula region (1.2%), the Tambov region (0.7%), the Stavropol Territory (0.2%), the Ulyanovsk Region (0.14% ) and Krasnodar Territory (0.08%).

“There is no second class in Siberia yet, but I think it will be. We are waiting for

- the Queen expressed hope.

In general, in the Volga region, wheat of the 3rd class accounted for 24%, of the 4th - 32%, of the 5th - 44%; in Siberia - 59%, 29% and 12%, respectively. In the Southern Federal District, the share of food wheat was 72%, North Caucasus - 89%, Central - 57%, North-West - 94%, Ural - 46%, Far East - 2%.

“As for grain damaged by a bug, we have better grain quality than before. Now, such cases have been identified mainly only in the Center and in the South, and this figure is still much lower than last year. The only thing I would like to say: maybe these indicators will change. Although this is not expected in Siberia, and in the Volga region it will also be quite clean ”,

- the Queen counts.

As for the quality of wheat sent for export, at the beginning of the 2017/18 season, the export structure has somewhat changed.

“Less is shipped for export of wheat of the 3rd class - less than 6%,”

- said the Queen.

In the same period of the last agricultural year, this indicator was twice as high - 14.2%. At the same time, in July-August, the share of export of wheat of the 4th class increased from 83.1% to 84.5%. Among the exported wheat, 5.7 percent accounted for 9.7% in July-August (2.7% in 2016).

“If Egypt traditionally buys 4th grade, then Turkey has reduced the quality of purchased grain: there has been a change in favor of increasing the 5th grade to 37%, while it has become slightly less than the 3rd grade - 17.5. The average proportion of protein in exported wheat in the first two months of the 2017/18 season was 12.3%. ”

- explained the Queen.

As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin reported to the president, now they are taking shape “Just perfect weather conditions to harvest”:

“And the yield is at a level higher than last year, and the number of losses has also seriously decreased.”

Ministry of Agriculture gives a disappointing forecast for the crop-2018

At present, the future crop is being laid, and today the forecast for the next year is disappointing, said Petr Chekmarev, Director of the Department of Plant Production of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the VI Sectoral Business Conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18:

“In the autumn, sowing was delayed with winter crops - in the Volga region, in the Central Federal District, although now they managed to catch up at the expense of the south. Harvesting is delayed - plowing, tillage is being delayed, which is also not a plus. ”

In addition, according to the head of the plant growing department, this year's weather does not favor a high crop in 2018.

“Due to the rains this year, the leaching of nutrients took place, the temperature decreases, microbiological processes in the soil are weaker. Therefore, the fertile part for the next year will not be very pleasant for the next harvest, "

- he noted.

At the same time, he recalled that after seasons with high gross harvest there are often crop failures.

“And the next year so far does not portend a good harvest, so this year we need to have stocks for the next year,”

- concluded Chekmarev.

According to operational data from the Ministry of Agriculture, by September 21 winter crops were sown on an area of \u200b\u200b10.0 million hectares, or 57.5% of the projected area (in 2016, 10.1 million hectares). Harvesting for grain and leguminous crops was completed in 80.9% of the sown area, 117.7 million tons of grain in bunker weight were harvested at a yield of 30.9 kg / ha (in 2016 - 26.5 kg / ha).

As Chekmarev noted, the harvesting campaign is currently under difficult weather conditions:

“It rains, especially in Siberia, where the cleaning is bad. In the Northwestern Federal District, the situation is also not very well. Well, in the near future they promise snow in these regions, this also complicates the situation in harvesting, "

In addition, in his opinion, one should not expect a high harvest this year for corn, which is currently harvested at 19% of the area:

“Corn let us down this year because there was not enough heat for the corn to form a good yield, despite the fact that there were very good species.”

In 2016, according to Rosstat, the corn crop reached a record high of 15.3 million tons.

69% of arable land is used in Russia

In Russia, on average, 69% of arable land resources are exploited, while in the world on average, the use of arable land is 80%, the head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Snitko noted at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18:

“In the key regions where Russian arable land is concentrated, the picture is very uneven. A number of regions, in principle, have already reached a rather high level of arable land use. For example, Altai Territory, Rostov Region and, of course, Krasnodar Territory. There are even such precedents that show that the area of \u200b\u200bsown arable land is larger than the resources of the arable land rewritten. ”

So, in the Krasnodar Territory, 98% of arable resources are sown, in Tatarstan - 91%, in Bashkiria - 88%, in the Altai Territory - 83%.

According to Snitko, in Russia the area of \u200b\u200barable land in most regions decreased until 2007, when a minimum was reached:

“After that, the area gradually began to grow.”

Despite this, only three regions managed to increase the cultivated area to the level of 1995 by the year of Amur and Kursk regions, as well as Adygea.

“At the same time, six regions were discovered where arable land has been falling since 1990, and is still falling. These are the Arkhangelsk, Yaroslavl, Tver regions, Udmurtia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory ”,

- reported Snitko.

The leaders in the volume of unused arable land is the Volgograd region, where almost 2.8 million hectares of arable resources are not sown, the Saratov region (2 million hectares) and the Orenburg region (1.8 million hectares). In general, the Southern Volga region today, according to Snitko, has the greatest potential for investment in the crop sector: the return potential of arable land is estimated at more than 7.5 million hectares. At the same time, the logistic capabilities of the Volga River can be used to export products, and integration with the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan also has export potential, the expert noted. Also, the expert believes, in the near future, the northwestern part of Russia will be interesting for investors - primarily for the development of the dairy sector and organic farming.

“In my opinion, among the regions that in the near future will be interesting for investments in the crop sector are the Orenburg and Saratov regions, the Altai Territory, the Tula and Moscow Regions, the Yaroslavl Region and, perhaps, some regions of the Far East. Firstly, these regions have recently burst into the list of the best regions from the point of view of the investment climate, and especially Moscow, Yaroslavl regions should be noted here. In addition, these regions have a pretty good financial situation, ”

- noted Snitko.

The price of land for agricultural production in the country, according to the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting, ranges from $ 1.5−2 thousand / ha in the best regions to $ 200−500 / ha in more arid regions.

The total area of \u200b\u200bunused agricultural land in the country is estimated at 40 million hectares. In July 2016, a federal law came into force in Russia that improved the process of land acquisition. In particular, the period after which the land can be taken from the owner in case of non-use for agricultural production has been reduced from five to three years. The withdrawal procedure is initiated by the Rosselkhoznadzor, which transfers the materials to the regional executive authorities, and those within one month must go to court with a request for the seizure of the land and its sale from public auction. As previously reported by the head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Alexander Tkachev, according to the results of 2016, decisions were made on the withdrawal of 10 thousand hectares of unused land - four times more than in 2015. The Moscow region turned out to be the region with the largest number of withdrawn lands - here owners lost 2.58 thousand hectares of unused land.

“But today 85% of the sown area has already been harvested, almost 122 million tons of bunker weight has been threshed. And we can confidently say that a record crop will be harvested, perhaps, in the entire history of Russia - and, of course, the Soviet Union, ”

“This year we will beat this record, I have no doubt”

The Minister expressed confidence.

“Given the favorable situation on the world market, we plan to export almost 45 million tons, including 30 million tons of wheat. We hope that this year Russia will again become the world leader in wheat exports, ”

Tkachev emphasized.

Grain market experts predicted that grain harvest this year could exceed last year's level (120.7 million tons) back in mid-July, when the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture were at the level of 100-105 million tons. During August, experts predicted during the harvesting campaign grow sharply and currently exceed 130 million tons. So, over the past week, the analytical company ProZerno has increased its forecast by another 2 million tons to 134.1 million tons, including 81.9 million tons of wheat (in 2016 - 73.3 million tons), 20.3 million tons of barley and 16 million tons of corn, and the analytical center Rusagrotrans 1 million tons to 133.3 million tons, including 82.3 million tons of wheat. The forecast of the SovEkon analytical center is 133 million tons, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) - 131-134 million tons.

Shipping Compensation

“He (the draft resolution) is being approved by the interested authorities”,

“Given the lack of demand for grain in these regions, the price was always underestimated by a ruble or two, and this made grain production not very efficient, not very profitable in these territories, and this is no less than about 70% of the volume of grain produced in distant from the center and southern ports of the territories ",

The official noted ( rNS quote).

Due to grain, agricultural exports in 2017 can grow to $ 20 billion.

“Last year it amounted to $ 17 billion. That is, this is a significant increase, and this speaks of our export potential not only in grain, but also in meat, vegetable oil, sugar”,

Summed up Tkachev.

“Export is already going as fast as possible. And even if we carry for free, there will be no more ports from this. Therefore, in the short term - in the coming weeks, or even months - using such a mechanism to remove grain from the market will not work, "

“As far as it’s hard to say. However, this will not relieve tension on the supply of grain: they will not export more, even if it will be cheaper ”,

This season wheat quality has improved

“In general, the quality of the classes is better than last year,”

Yulia Koroleva, director of the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, said at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18.

“Last year, 3rd grade, we had no more than 22%,”

She reminded.

So, in the Krasnodar Territory, the 3rd class accounts for 14.9% of the crop, which is almost twice as high as last year's indicator (7.9%), in the Crimea - 9.1% compared to 5.4% in 2016.

“With a projected wheat crop of 83 million tons, the volume of wheat of the 3rd class may be 19–19.5 million tons against the estimated 16.3 million tons”,

It is said in the message "SovEkona."

Also, improvement over the previous year can be expected for wheat of the 2nd class.

“Now the second class has revealed a small amount - about 0.1% of the total gross harvest. But we understand that now Siberia and the Volga Federal District will give a noticeable increase in quality ”,

The Queen noted.

“There is no second class in Siberia yet, but I think it will be. We are waiting for

The Queen expressed hope.

In general, in the Volga region, wheat of the 3rd class accounted for 24%, of the 4th - 32%, of the 5th - 44%; in Siberia - 59%, 29% and 12%, respectively. In the Southern Federal District, the share of food wheat was 72%, North Caucasian - 89%, Central - 57%, North-West - 94%, Ural - 46%, Far East - 2%.

“As for grain damaged by a bug, we have better grain quality than before. Now, such cases have been identified mainly only in the Center and in the South, and this figure is still much lower than last year. The only thing I would like to say: maybe these indicators will change. Although this is not expected in Siberia, and in the Volga region it will also be quite clean ”,

The Queen counts.

As for the quality of wheat sent for export, at the beginning of the 2017/18 season, the export structure has somewhat changed.

“Less is shipped for export of wheat of the 3rd class - less than 6%,”

The Queen pointed.

“If Egypt traditionally buys 4th grade, then Turkey has reduced the quality of purchased grain: there has been a change in favor of increasing the 5th grade to 37%, while it has become slightly less than the 3rd grade - 17.5. The average proportion of protein in exported wheat in the first two months of the 2017/18 season was 12.3%. ”

The Queen explained.

As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin reported to the president, now they are taking shape “Just perfect weather conditions to harvest”:

“And the yield is at a level higher than last year, and the number of losses has also seriously decreased.”

Ministry of Agriculture gives a disappointing forecast for the crop-2018

“In the autumn, sowing was delayed with winter crops - in the Volga region, in the Central Federal District, although now they managed to catch up at the expense of the south. Harvesting is delayed - plowing, tillage is being delayed, which is also not a plus. ”

In addition, according to the head of the plant growing department, this year's weather does not favor a high crop in 2018.

“Due to the rains this year, the leaching of nutrients took place, the temperature decreases, microbiological processes in the soil are weaker. Therefore, the fertile part for the next year will not be very pleasant for the next harvest, "

He noted.

At the same time, he recalled that after seasons with high gross harvest there are often crop failures.

“And the next year so far does not portend a good harvest, so this year we need to have stocks for the next year,”

Concluded Chekmarev.

As Chekmarev noted, the harvesting campaign is currently under difficult weather conditions:

“It rains, especially in Siberia, where the cleaning is bad. In the Northwestern Federal District, the situation is also not very well. Well, in the near future they promise snow in these regions, this also complicates the situation in harvesting, "

In addition, in his opinion, one should not expect a high harvest this year for corn, which is currently harvested at 19% of the area:

“Corn let us down this year because there was not enough heat for the corn to form a good yield, despite the fact that there were very good species.”

In 2016, according to Rosstat, the corn crop reached a record high of 15.3 million tons.

69% of arable land is used in Russia

“In the key regions where Russian arable land is concentrated, the picture is very uneven. A number of regions, in principle, have already reached a rather high level of arable land use. For example, Altai Territory, Rostov Region and, of course, Krasnodar Territory. There are even such precedents that show that the area of \u200b\u200bsown arable land is larger than the resources of the arable land rewritten. ”

So, in the Krasnodar Territory, 98% of arable resources are sown, in Tatarstan - 91%, in Bashkiria - 88%, in the Altai Territory - 83%.

According to Snitko, in Russia the area of \u200b\u200barable land in most regions decreased until 2007, when a minimum was reached:

“After that, the area gradually began to grow.”

Despite this, only three regions managed to increase the cultivated area to the level of 1995 by the year of Amur and Kursk regions, as well as Adygea.

“At the same time, six regions were discovered where arable land has been falling since 1990, and is still falling. These are the Arkhangelsk, Yaroslavl, Tver regions, Udmurtia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory ”,

Reported Snitko.

“In my opinion, among the regions that in the near future will be interesting for investments in the crop sector are the Orenburg and Saratov regions, the Altai Territory, the Tula and Moscow Regions, the Yaroslavl Region and, perhaps, some regions of the Far East. Firstly, these regions have recently burst into the list of the best regions from the point of view of the investment climate, and especially Moscow, Yaroslavl regions should be noted here. In addition, these regions have a pretty good financial situation, ”

Noted Snitko.

In August 2017, the agricultural sector of the country’s economy overcame a temporary decline in June-July, caused by the low rate of harvesting suffering due to the poor climatic conditions of spring and early summer. Agricultural production again gained a plus (104.7% compared to August last year). Also a distinctive feature of the year is a small but stable increase in milk production.

This year we are again waiting for a record of grain harvest. As of September 29, more than 123 million tons of grain were harvested, which significantly exceeds the record levels of last year.

The share of processing enterprises is growing, which already account for more than half of the commissioned capacities. In July-September 2017, 32 new or reconstructed enterprises were commissioned with an investment volume of more than 100 million rubles, including 17 agricultural processing enterprises.

The review includes 13 enterprises with investments of more than 500 million rubles, including 7 enterprises with investments of more than 1 billion rubles.

1. On July 21, the DolgovGrupp agricultural holding launched a feed mill in Guryevsk, Kaliningrad Region. This is the largest feed mill in the region. The plant’s capacity is 480 tons of feed per day or 150 thousand tons of products per year. Production is fully automated and managed by just seven specialists. Investments in the project amounted to 1.2 billion rubles. A significant part of the funds was provided as a loan by Sberbank. The plant was built in 2 years on the territory of the poultry farm in Guryevsk. This is the third feed mill of the company. With the launch of the plant, the needs of the agroholding divisions in feed feed will be completely covered. And this is more than 12 thousand cattle of dairy and meat breeds of the Nezhinskaya dairy factory, and also more than 800 thousand chickens at the poultry farm in Guryevsk.

2. On July 21, Miratorg Agro-Industrial Holding put into operation in the Tula region a beef cattle farm for 5.5 thousand heads.

The volume of investments in new production amounted to 900 million rubles.

Aberdeen Angus cows will be raised on a farm located in the village of Lenino, Odoyevsky District.

3. July 24, in the village of Chaplygino, Kursk district, Kursk region, the opening of the Mushroom Rainbow enterprise, a greenhouse complex for the production of champignons, took place. The company invested 1.2 billion rubles in the implementation of the project. It will create 248 jobs. The first stage of production allows you to grow up to 4 thousand tons of champignons per year. Over the next two years, investors are planning to fully implement the import substitution project, which will allow them to triple their production capacities - up to 12 thousand tons of champignons per year.

4. July 26 in the village Sagittarius in the Tambov district of the Tambov region opened a meat processing workshop for the company Auchan-Russia. Investments in the project amounted to more than 3 billion rubles. In 2018, the company will produce up to 40 thousand tons of meat products from pork, beef, lamb. By 2021, it is planned to increase capacity to 70 thousand tons. Now Auchan supplies about 35 thousand tons of these types of meat per year for sale.

Raw materials will be purchased not only at agricultural enterprises, but also from Tambov farmers. They will conclude long-term contracts with them. This will allow "Auchan" in 3-4 years to completely switch to Russian meat, abandoning imported.

At the first stage of the project, 200 jobs were created. After reaching full capacity, more than 1000 jobs will appear. The average level of wages will be more than 30 thousand rubles.

5. August 28 in the village The first Zaseimye of the Manturovsky district of the Kursk region opened a new pig farm. The cost of this project is more than 1 billion rubles.

The new pig-breeding complex built by BVK-GLOBAL LLC is designed for 5500 sows at a time.

Thanks to the introduced pig-breeding facility, more than 100 jobs will be created.

6. On August 30, a fruit storage was opened in the Abinsky district of the Krasnodar Territory. The one-time capacity of the complex for storage, sorting, packaging and commodity processing of fruits is 6800 tons.

A modern apple sorting line and two packaging lines are provided here, with a productivity of 10-12 tons / hour each.

The volume of investments will amount to 650 million rubles.

7. On September 4, in the Belgorod Region near Prokhorovka, a curd cheese production workshop was opened at the Hohland Russland company factory.

The production capacity is doubled - up to 40 thousand tons per year.

In 2017, a record for grain harvest was broken in Russia - more than 122.5 million tons have already been milled. This was stated by the Prime Minister of Russia D mitriy Medvedev at the last government meeting. A similar crop was in 1978 - then this figure was 127 million tons, but the area of \u200b\u200bland under crops was then 78 million hectares, and today it is only 47.

— This year's crop can be called a record in the history of Russia and the Soviet Union. If we restore this area, we will additionally receive another 100 million tons of grain. This is about the potential of the grain market. By 2030, we can get not 120, but 150 million tons, and exports will not be 40-45, as today, but already for 70 million. Such a crop will fully satisfy the growing demand for food and feed grain in the domestic market, as well as provide export deliveries, the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation noted at the meeting Alexander Tkachev.

According to him, already now there is a return on those colossal funds that we invest in agriculture. This year it is 242 billion rubles that are allocated for the implementation of the state program for the development of agriculture.

What problems can arise?

However, a good harvest creates certain problems for farmers. As the owner of the Sverdlovsk network of private bakeries "On Vishneva" noted Anatoly Pavlov, grain purchase is now at low prices.

The story is very long, and the peasants are in a panic. Harvest from the field can be sold at 5000 rubles per ton, for comparison - in May the cost of grain was 11 500 rubles per ton, however, from the warehouse. At the same time, the cost of materials spent on sowing grain is 4,500 rubles. per ton. Although bakers will benefit - flour prices also fell by 1,500 rubles in three weeks, but these fluctuations can be attributed to seasonal factors, February is a significant month, ”Anatoly Pavlov told OG.

This is due to a fall in purchase prices for grain and the loading of elevators, which until recently had been harvested from previous years. The situation required direct intervention by the Government of Russia, which allocated subsidies for the transportation of grain from remote areas of Altai and Siberia to the terminals of the Novorossiysk port. Despite the fact that over the past three years, port workers have managed to double the volume of grain transshipment, capacities are overloaded, and reserves for increasing volumes are low.

What to do?

The situation in the future may be changed by the construction of the railway part of the Crimean bridge, the completion of which is scheduled for December 2019. In Crimea, there are three deep-sea terminals capable of transshipment of grain. Now this infrastructure is not used due to the blockade of the Crimea - grain does not come from Ukraine. There is no way to transport grain from Russia.

Secondly, it is necessary to accelerate the work on the creation of new wholesale and logistics centers. This will reduce transportation losses, which reach 30 percent. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to build close to million-plus cities and large transport and logistics hubs, such as Moscow and the Moscow region, the Leningrad region and St. Petersburg, Rostov, Sverdlovsk and others. The centers will be tied into a single network that allows you to track and regulate the flow of goods between the federal districts of the country. The program started in 2014, and part of the facilities, for example, in Primorye, has already been commissioned. Nevertheless, their number is not enough - this is the only way to explain the proposal of the head of the agro-industrial complex Alexander Tkachev about plans to build an additional 36 centers.

And the last, as Dmitry Medvedev noted - it is necessary to increase the processing of grain into a product with a higher conversion.

By and large, we have no other choice. Part of the funds allocated for grain interventions and subsidies for the transportation of grain, it makes sense to invest in the creation of a network of plants for the deep processing of wheat in Altai, in Western and Eastern Siberia. This will allow you to create a product of higher processing and solve logistics problems. At the same time, added value will remain in the country and new jobs will be created. A similar plant was built in Ishim (Tyumen region). Investments amounted to 5 billion rubles, and the processing capacity is 120 thousand tons of wheat per year. The final processing products are alcohol, animal feed and lysine - which will be imported into the countries of the Middle East and Asia (Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan). The return on investment is 7 years.

But there aren’t enough new deep processing plants, says the director of Finagro Evgeny Shestakov:“This is a very expensive production and there are no analogues to the Ishim lysine plant in the immediate environment. In our region, unfortunately, there are no consumers of grain of a similar level, and we can only rely on the Sverdlovsk poultry factory, which purchases part of the grown crop from local producers. This forces the export of grain to neighboring regions. A strategic mistake is to increase production in the absence of markets. You can understand the southern regions of the country that are able to export large volumes of products, taking advantage of the proximity of port infrastructure. "

About 6 trillion rubles are needed for the planned state program for the construction of 100-120 deep processing plants with a capacity of 20 million tons of grain. After the launch of these plants, the stable demand for grain in the domestic market will increase. At the same time, each plant, annually purchasing grain for 1 billion rubles, will be able to produce products for 5 billion rubles. Only planning the demand for grain with the help of its deep processing is able to smooth out seasonal fluctuations in prices and give confidence to farmers in the future.

By the way

Despite the worsening weather conditions, field work is continuing everywhere in the Sverdlovsk Region, the acting official said. Minister of Agriculture and Food of the region Dmitry Degtyarev. At the moment, Sverdlovsk agrarians have finished harvesting fodder crops for livestock needs. Collected 31.3 centners of feed per animal, with a plan of 30 centners. Also, 92 percent of the plan was removed from the fields, the gross grain harvest amounted to 755 thousand tons. More than 90 percent of the plan harvested potatoes, 215 thousand tons of tubers were laid for storage, according to the plan to collect - 218 thousand tons. Also, 61 percent of the crop of vegetables was removed from the fields of the region.

Published in No. 186 dated 10/10/2017

Another record for cereal crops in Russia could lead to monthly deflation and inflation to drop closer to 3.6–3.8% at the end of the year, economists surveyed by Izvestia estimated. At the same time, in August, deflation may reach 0.3% - for the first time in history. According to agricultural experts, in 2017 about 120-130 million tons of grain will be harvested, which is noticeably better than the 2016 result (121 million tons). Expectations of high yields have already led to lower market prices, which will affect inflation in the coming months.

This year’s cereal crop may surpass last year’s record. While the Ministry of Agriculture gives modest estimates of 103-105 million tons, experts predict a significantly higher level of grain harvest. President of the National Union of Grain Producers Pavel Skurikhin made a forecast to Izvestia that the yield could exceed 120 million tons. Andrei Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical center, believes that the figure will be even higher - 127.6 million tons. According to him, if this level is achieved, it will be an absolute record that exceeds the achievements of 1978, when 127.4 million tons were collected.

According to the results of the year, inflation will not go significantly beyond the target of the Central Bank at 4%, experts say. The Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia that the contribution of fluctuations in grain yields to aggregate consumer and investment demand does not exceed 0.1 percentage points. The Bank of Russia reported that they did not see the risks of sharp changes in inflation due to the grain harvest, and "currently inflation is near the target level."

Generally, a good harvest has a short-term effect on inflation. Its effect is quickly exhausted, and the price growth rate ceases to decline. At the same time, monetary policy affects the economy and inflation over a longer horizon. Given this, special measures on the part of the Bank of Russia in response to a good harvest will not be required, a CB representative said.

Agriculture has a significant impact on prices. Since wheat and other grains are socially important raw materials, their high yield can reduce the price of bread, pasta and cereals and affect the overall inflation rate.

We see that grain prices are falling, and falling quite quickly, ”Pavel Skurikhin told Izvestia. - Today, of course, we see that on inflation the situation in the grain market is displayed just in the direction of its decline due to the fact that prices are falling.

At the same time, for farmers, too low prices for products are a risk factor, he added, because farmers need money in order to plant winter crops and prepare for spring sowing.

It is already clear that the harvest will be just huge. We have several components of this crop. The main one is winter crops. To a large extent they are cleaned. We also have high yield in spring in the European part of Russia, ”said Andrei Sizov.

Estimates of macroeconomists of the extent of the impact of the crop on inflation range from 0.1-0.3 percentage points.

Indeed, if the crop is better, then we can see a fairly deep seasonal deflation. In August, 0.3% deflation is possible, this will be an absolute record, because never in the history of Russia a deflation of 0.3% has been observed. If it is 0.3%, this means that we may be somewhere around 3.6% yoy on inflation in August, ”commented Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at Uralsib Capital.

Export rate

Earlier in September, according to the results of 2017, Russia will export a record 31.5 million tons of wheat and outperform its main competitor, the United States, in this indicator, the country's ministry of agriculture said. “Russia's forces in the export market have been growing over the past 5 years. Thanks to a record crop with huge storage and carrying capacities, Russia is expected to become the world's leading supplier of wheat, setting a new export record, ”the agency’s report said.

In the last agricultural year, which ended on June 30, 2017, Russia exported a record 35.5 million tons of grain, including 27.1 million tons of wheat, yielding US global leadership (28.1 million tons) in this indicator. The year before, in 2015-2016, Russia exported 24.6 million tons of wheat to agricultural land, becoming the world leader in this indicator for the first time.

Tkachev on Thursday also announced that this year will be harvested not only a record crop of wheat, but also barley, corn, buckwheat, oilseeds and sugar beets. In 2016, Russia production of beet sugar in Russia reached a figure of 6.2 million tons. “We took the first place in the world in the production of beet sugar, ahead of France, the USA and Germany in this indicator,” the head of the Ministry of Agriculture in an interview in April 2017 Forbes

This year, the cultivated area of \u200b\u200bsugar beets was increased by 6%. The projected record beet crop will produce 6.5 million tons of sugar and maintain global leadership in this segment. “Today we are fully provided with our raw materials and have increased the export of sugar tenfold. Last year it amounted to 340,000 tons, this year the export potential of the industry is 2 times higher - about 700,000 tons, ”Tkachev said on September 28.

Agrarian sector: billionaires and companies

The presence of agrarian businessmen in the ranking of the richest people in the country is not accidental. Despite the general economic downturn over several years, agricultural production grew by 2.6% in 2015 and by 4.8% in 2016. In just a few years, state support, counter sanctions and the devaluation of the ruble turned agriculture into one of the most profitable businesses in Russia. "It has become profitable and interesting to engage in agriculture," - in an interview with Forbes in April 2017, the head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Alexander Tkachev. If in 2011 the profitability of agricultural producers, taking into account subsidies, was below 12%, then in 2016 it approached 20%. “Grain is not inferior to oil in terms of profitability. And when a barrel cost $ 30–40, profitability was even higher, ”Tkachev emphasized. In just five years, agricultural output has grown from 3.3 trillion rubles to 5.6 trillion rubles.

The richest agrarian on the Russian Forbes list and the only billionaire was Vadim Moshkovich, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Rusagro Group of Companies. The Rusagro company, created by Moshkovich in 1995, is one of the largest agro-industrial groups in Russia. The holding produces 49% of Russian margarine, 43% of lump sugar, 9% of mayonnaise and 6.3% of pork.

16 Russian enterprises of the agricultural sector were included in the rating of 200 of the largest private Forbes companies. Five of them entered the first hundred of the list. Among them are GC Sodruzhestvo, Miratorg, EFKO, Rusagro and Cherkizovo Group.

The leading group in the group is the Kaliningrad vegetable oil producer GK Sodruzhestvo. The company was founded in 2005 by the spouses Alexander and Natalya Lutsenko and is the largest investor in its region. In the Forbes ranking, she was in 55th place.

Agriculture and sanctions

In August 2014, the Russian government, in pursuance of a decree of President Putin and in response to anti-Russian sanctions, introduced a ban on the import of products from the United States, EU, Canada, Australia and Norway. Later, the food embargo was extended to Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Ukraine. All these countries were forbidden to supply meat to cattle and poultry to Russia, pork and fish, seafood, dairy products, cheeses, sausages, vegetables and fruits, root vegetables and nuts.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that pro-embargo stimulates the development of Russian agriculture. In November 2016, President Vladimir Putin promised to "drag out as long as possible" with the abolition of counter-sanctions. " So he responded to the appeal of an entrepreneur who asked him to “never cancel” the food embargo, which is beneficial for Russian producers.

In February 2017, Deputy Minister of Agriculture Yevgeny Gromyko stated that Russia, during the food embargo, replaced Russian products with imported food worth $ 4 billion. He explained that this includes cheese, sausages and other products that were previously imported abroad, and today it is replaced by Russian products.

The head of the Ministry of Agriculture Tkachev in April 2017, Forbes, that in general the industry is ready for the lifting of sanctions. “When the sanctions are lifted, part of the import will pour into the Russian market, so we must resist competition not by prohibitive measures, but by the fact that our product is cheaper and better,” he said then. And he called for continued work to reduce costs and increase labor productivity so that Russian products are more competitive.

In June 2017, President Putin admitted that anti-Russian sanctions caused some damage to the Russian economy, but noted that the country was used to living in conditions of restrictions. He especially noted the growth of production in agriculture - by 3%. Russia has become a world leader in wheat exports. Own production almost completely covers the country's needs for pork and poultry, and is already looking for markets abroad (including China), the head of state said.